The Present ain’t Pretty, but the Future is Bright in Oakland

By Fernando Gallo

To the casual fan, the Oakland Athletics are pathetic: They trail the AL West-leading Angels by nearly 20 games, and their offense ranks near the bottom of the league in home runs (27th), batting average (24th), slugging (28th), and even Billy Beane’s beloved on-base percentage (22nd). For many A’s fans, this has been a season to forget, and we all know that the Eastern Seaboard Propaganda Network (also known as ESPN) never has a problem ignoring West Coast teams.

But the truth of the matter is that Beane has done it again - he has worked some magic and amassed a wealth of young talent. The writing was on the wall after the A’s last postseason run to the ALCS in 2006. Even though they finally got over the first-round hump that had dogged Beane’s celebrated tenure as general manager, that team was not built for the long hall: Barry Zito was in the last year of his deal, and his numbers were already on a downswing that would continue in San Francisco (ha ha); Esteban Loaiza’s career was winding down (it ended in 2008); despite his MVP-caliber season, at 38, Frank Thomas didn’t have many homers left in him; and Eric Chavez and Rich Harden were showing signs of the injury-plagued years that were to come. All of these pieces were key to Oakland’s rise, and their shelf life was dwindling fast.

So Beane did what Beane does best: He sold high and got some great young prospects in return. Despite the fact that he was becoming a dominant pitcher, Danny Haren was dealt for a cavalcade of minor leaguers. Many other veterans soon followed, and Oakland would rightfully earn the moniker of the Triple A’s as the prospects rolled in.

Now fast forward to 2009: The last three seasons have helped to develop some fantastic arms, including starting pitchers Brett Anderson (21-years-old), Trevor Cahill (21), Gio Gonzalez (23), and closer Andrew Bailey (25). Among those pitchers, both Anderson and Gonzalez appear to have ace-quality talent: After struggling mightily with control issues, Gonzalez has surrendered less than three runs in five of his last eight starts and is averaging better than 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Anderson appears to be hitting the proverbial wall, struggling in his last few starts, but he has had some brilliant outings this season, including a 2-hit shutout in his first career start at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. Cahill has also strung a few good starts together, and the flame-throwing Bailey was the A’s lone All-star representative in July - he currently has 21 saves in 25 chances.

Overall, the A’s have four rookie pitchers and 12 players on the everyday roster with three years of big league experience or less. Catcher Kurt Suzuki has proven himself to be a very dependable hitter (.271 career average and .405 career slugging percentage), as well as a strong leader among the pitching staff. And outfielder Rajai Davis has been a classic Beane diamond in the rough: After being cut by the rival San Francisco Giants two years ago, Davis has claimed the starting spot in centerfield with a .298 average and 30 stolen bases.

One of the most interesting developments for the A’s has been the evolution of their enigmatic general manager. Loved by stat geeks and hated by old-schoolers, Beane has been told that his vaunted “Moneyball” methods have failed in the long haul, but that is definitely not the case. Howard Bryant of ESPN wrote an article that was surprisingly even-keel by ESPN standards (but way too long), and he explains what many A’s fans have known for a long time: It’s not that Beane’s methods didn’t work - it’s that they worked too well. The Red Sox figured out that Beane’s ideas were worth copying, and their payroll dwarfs Oakland’s. The result? Two championships in four years.

“Moneyball” was never about on-base percentage; it was about exploiting the inefficiencies in the market. Home runs and .300 batting averages will always be expensive, but Beane tried to find the things that helped win games and were much cheaper than the conventional stats. In 2002, it was on-base percentage. Now that everyone has caught up to the on-base revolution, Beane has been forced to find new inefficiencies and change his methods.

So what is undervalued right now? Speed and defense. Beane was a fervent hater of the stolen base, as reflected by his team’s stats: The A’s haven‘t finished better than 14th in the majors in stolen bases since 2002, and have finished dead last in that category three times in that span. Beane felt that the risk of losing a base runner outweighed the benefit of a possible stolen base, so he never acquired speedsters and the A’s never ran. But this year, the A’s are fifth overall in steals, and Davis has been allowed to run hog wild on the base paths.

Defense has always been a hard quality to measure statistically, so Beane ignored it for the most part. He opted to try to hide bad defenders in the corner outfield spots or at first base, but lately defense has made a comeback. The re-signing of Mark Ellis proves that point: Beane doesn’t find .267 career hitters that appealing, but he gave Ellis a two-year deal in 2008 because of his great defense at second base.

So what does this all mean? It means fear not, A’s fans - your team is still in good hands. The young pitchers have gained valuable on the job training this season, and the team has switched to a six-man rotation for the rest of the year to allow the kids to rest. Beane still has to prove that he can develop a power hitter (he hasn’t had much success in doing so since Eric Chavez), but there are many viable candidates for that role in the minor leagues. All of the trades have always been part of a long-term plan, with the one-year veteran deals just there to ensure the team stays competitive. The A’s will soon be just a veteran or two away from the postseason (like they were in 2006), and a long playoff run is on the horizon. In the meantime… there’s always football!